Santiago

Poerline blog has this on the Santiago security incident.

Bureaucrats Circle Wagons

The bureaucrats at the CIA and the State Department have powerful ally in their camp: the Washington Post.

Staff writers at the Post have been reporting on the resignations at CIA over Porter Goss and his staff, with reasons no more substantial than whining over management style and "lack of experience" (translation: youth).

Leaked misgivings at DepState concern Condaleeza Rice and her weakness in "managing interagency conflicts" and allegations that "her staff demeaned the State Department."

Interesting. Here you have an intelligence agency that failed in its main mission while its senior personnel actively opposed administration policy. And similar bureaucrats in the State Department more concerned with keeping ther jobs than performing them. And all they can do now is whine about the newcomers, even before most of them have arrived.

The more the Post tries to report this long overdue turmoil as bad news, the more optimistic I am that real reform might finally, actually take place.

JC Stayed Home

True to my prediction, Jimmy Carter requested permission from the White House (according to Andrea Mitchell) to attend Arafat's funeral. But either permission wasn't granted or there were other obstacles, because his name didn't appear on the dignitary list. Too bad.

However, he did issue a statement which speaks for itself.

JC & Yasser

One of Jimmy Carter's favorite "leaders" is on his deathbed.

I don't know where Yasser Arafat ranks on JC's most admired list, among Kim Jung-Il, Fidel Castro, and Hugo Chavez (did I leave anyone out? Saddam?), but I'm guessing he was Numero Uno.

Don't believe me? Taking any bets against Carter attending Arafat's impending funeral?

The Cheney Factor

Remember when pro-Bush pundits were urging W to replace Dick Cheney with a younger, more charismatic, more energetic VP candidate?

Seems like ancient history now. Especially after the debate, which left John Edwards bleeding on the floor with his internal organs exposed. To put it figuratively but mildly.

But Dick has done his job. I'm not advocating this, but I think it might happen: Dick Cheney will resign as VP before 2008. Not because of his age or health (which might be factors), but because his job is complete. Even those who voted for the ticket on the account of the Cheney factor would understand. Nobody says "gravitas" any more, but there is no doubt that Cheney was counted among the "grownups" who would, along with Rummy and others, fill the gaping experience gap any new administration needed.

But after four years, experience is no longer in such short supply as it was in 2000, when W sought the most experienced he could find (called "retreads" by the media) for his transition. There are today plenty of people he can draw on to get the advice he needs (including Cheney, whether VP or not). Today, he needs new people and new ideas. And Dick Cheney knows this. He also knows that he has no political ambitions and wants to go back to private life. So why wait until 2008?

There are lots of people who can fill the VP position. I have no idea whom W will nominate, but he or she will seem perfectly logical, if not brilliant, when he does.

You heard it here first.

Arafat: Franco Redux

I am reminded of 1975, when the media maintained a death watch over the gravely ill Francisco Franco. Every day the media quelched rumors with the pronouncement "Generalisimo Francisco Franco Is Still Alive." When he was finally confirmed dead, Chevy Chase on SNL began announcing weekly as a late-breaking story during the Weekly Update (a TV news parody) segment: "Generalisimo Francisco Franco Is Still Dead!" This went on for weeks, adding on a shouted version by Garrett Morris for the hearing impaired.

When Arafat finally dies, who will resume the Weekly Update tradition?

The Margin

So where did these extra 3.5M voters for Bush come from?

First, they did not come from any particular geographic region. They came from all over.

I have no doubt that at least a third were evangelical Christians (and Orthodox Jews, though a tiny demographic) that sat out the last presidential election, for various reasons.

And my guess is that the remainder were voters of all stripes (non-conservatives) who just couldn't square the image of Kerry with his 1971 persona. Just my guess.

Mandate

The concession is only hours old, and already the media elite are advising Bush that since he was elected by a "plurality" (Tim Russert), the country remains "deeply divided" (Katie Couric) and Bush "has no mandate" (Couric again) and that he should "heal the wounds" (Washington Post).

So if you're dumb enough or blind enough to believe that an absolute majority of both electoral and popular votes (the biggest since 1988) is only a "plurality," then you'll have no problem accepting that the victors should therefore abandon their campaign promises and principles that got them elected to appease the demands of the minority of the electorate that voted against them and will never vote for them in the future, while betraying the expectations of the majority of the electorate that voted for them.

This may sound ridiculous, but it's exactly what Bush's father did. But I have a feeling W won't ruin his successor's odds in 2008.

PA & OH

We now learn that Kerry's margin in PA is roughly the same as Bush's in OH.

Will Bush challenge the PA results as Kerry challenges OH?

Do the PA results include the thousands of 100% Democrat "pre-votes" on the Philadelphia voting machines?

Will the traditional Cuyahoga county OH machine shenanigans be off-limits during the Kerry challenge in Ohio?

Decisive

Finally, in 2004, we get a decisive winner of the popular vote. A three-million plus vote margin, and the first outright majority since 1988, when Bush 41 beat Dukakis.

Of course, it's the electoral college that counts. And the Kerry camp has already made clear that they're going after Ohio. But John Edwards pledged during the campaign to concede if he lost the popular vote. Does this mean Kerry will seek a new VP?

Kerry's Discharge

Kerry's Discharge Is Questioned by an Ex-JAG Officer - November 1, 2004 - The New York Sun

From this article, and examination of additional service documents placed on Kerry's web site (I don't visit the site often), I learn I was mistaken about Kerry's reserve status. He was transferred to the Standby Reserve, not Selected Reserve, and so was not required to attend drills (unless he wanted to for retirement points and advancement). However, he was still an officer in the Reserves, and subject to the UCMJ and Naval Regulations regarding the use of the uniform and meeting with foreign officials.